@Article{LapolaSBCOTBOJ:2020:ClVuAd,
               author = "Lapola, David M. and Silva, Jos{\'e} Maria C. da and Braga, Diego 
                         R. and Carpigiani, Larissa and Ogawa, Fernanda and Torres, Roger 
                         R. and Barbosa, Luis C. F. and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud 
                         and Joly, Carlos A.",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {University of 
                         Miami} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and 
                         {Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual Paulista (UNESP)} and {Universidade federal de 
                         Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o Internacional 
                         do Brasil} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)}",
                title = "A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for 
                         Brazil's protected areas",
              journal = "Conservation Biology",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "34",
               number = "2",
                pages = "427--437",
                month = "apr.",
                 note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
             keywords = "biodiversity conservation, biome, Caatinga, indigenous land, 
                         Pantanal, regional climate-change index, sustainable use.",
             abstract = "Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within 
                         protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support 
                         traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to 
                         climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs 
                         by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators 
                         of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability 
                         of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of 
                         indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change 
                         adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km2) were highly 
                         vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), 
                         Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs 
                         (756,569 km2), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium 
                         vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected 
                         severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven 
                         vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the 
                         generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high 
                         or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. 
                         Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the 
                         traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting 
                         these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the 
                         Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or 
                         no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience 
                         status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, 
                         and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., 
                         improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low 
                         resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link 
                         vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that 
                         some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable 
                         should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies 
                         in the near future.",
                  doi = "10.1111/cobi.13405",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13405",
                 issn = "0888-8892",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lapola_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}